What no one ever brought out in the story of Jack and the Beanstalk is the power of timely decision making. The way that story pans out is really in 3 timely decisions.
- Timely investment & risk: The ability to take a risk at a time that his cow would unlikely yield returns through milk
- Timely Action: The ability to choose action when the opportunity presented itself
- Timely exit: Seizing the goose and making a well-timed exit
Jack and the Beanstalk is not just a classic – it should be touted as the classic for investors. And there’s much to learn.
The Cow
Macro forecasters still peg world growth near ~3%-hardly a tailwind, while MSCI’s global property indices showed negative/low returns through 2022–24 before a tentative rebound in 2025.
Global real estate has spent two years digesting higher rates and tighter liquidity.
The Beans
India today is empowered with:
- Demography: 52% of India’s current population is below 30 years of age.
- Democracy: Citizens are active participants and not passive subjects. Policy comes from people’s consent and government is mandated in governance. As the world’s largest democracy, India enjoys moral and diplomatic credibility. Its cultural exports—Bollywood, yoga, cuisine, diaspora influence—add to its global presence.
- Digital Power: It is fueling the world’s fastest growing economy, touted to become the world’s third largest GDP within a decade.
- Diversity: Diversity offers market diversity with the opportunity to scale and segment, it brings India multiple growth engines, a global talent pool adaptable to many different cultures.
- Defence: India has one of the world’s largest armed forces, nuclear capability, and growing investments in indigenous defence production. Yet it remains a non-aggressor and has historically never been the first to attack any country. This makes India a regional security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific.
The Golden Goose:
A quick look at stats indicates that currently the 5Ds are paying off well.
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Office: India clocked 39.45 mn sq ft gross leasing in H1 2025 (all-time high), with Q2 2025 = 20 mn sq ft (strongest second quarter on record). Through Jan–Sep 2025, leasing touched 50.9 mn sq ft (+8% YoY), led by GCCs.
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Residential: Top-7 city prices +11% YoY (H1 2025); RBI’s House Price Index shows +3.1% YoY (Q4 FY25)-steady, not frothy. Globally, India ranked 15th of 55 for annual house-price growth in Q1 2025 (7.7% nominal; 4.2% real).
- Listed real estate (cash returns): Indian REITs delivered FY25 distributions of ₹23.01/unit (Embassy) and ₹21.95/unit (Mindspace); Nexus Select Trust’s trailing yield hovers ~5–6%.
Structural vs Cyclical Signals: India’s Real Estate in the Global Context (2024–25)
India’s real estate cycle is entering a phase where operating metrics—not multiple expansion—are doing the heavy lifting. Leasing velocity, controlled price appreciation, and visible cash distributions indicate fundamentals-led returns rather than liquidity-led spikes. With disciplined supply and broadening capital access, the market’s risk-return now hinges on income growth and occupancy, not speculation.
So, the question is no longer, can Indian Real Estate Outperform Global Markets? Rather it is merely about when will the Indian Real Estate Outperform Global Markets? And that is the $1 trillion question.
